Scenario Brief
Scenario Confidence Brief
Printer-friendly narrative generated from deterministic scenario outputs, with observed facts kept separate from committee modelling assumptions.
Executive Summary
DEAP Crash does not claim that all fields are public facts. It separates sourced public material from committee assumptions and then computes deterministic scenario outputs from that split.
The current demo portfolio contains 2 real rows and 2 synthetic calibration rows across 1 hubs.
Equal Allocation Baseline deploys £220,000 and funds 4 projects.
Observed Facts Versus Assumptions
Hub goal frame: Prioritise projects that convert BioQuarter research strength into visible diagnostic and imaging milestones. Balance one commercially mature rollout case with one clinically advancing evidence case.
Observed facts in the demo include hub identity, public stage, evidence summary, source references, and public funding facts where they are available.
Committee assumptions include requested budgets, minimum viable budgets, optimal budgets, screening passes, rubric scores, and milestone costs.
Observed public funding facts across the portfolio sum to £5,000,000.
Scenario Headlines
Need-Based Allocation produces the highest budget-weighted milestone score at 7.8.
Need-Based Allocation produces the highest need score at 21,241.8.
Need-Based Allocation produces the highest frontier score at 7.8.
Equal Allocation Baseline: Equal Distribution, £220,000 deployed, 4 projects funded, Gini 0.00.
Need-Based Allocation: Need Adjusted, £220,000 deployed, 4 projects funded, Gini 0.17.
Frontier Allocation: Frontier First, £220,000 deployed, 4 projects funded, Gini 0.01.
Hybrid Committee View: Hybrid Allocation, £220,000 deployed, 4 projects funded, Gini 0.09.
Method Note
Target milestones: US rollout evidence for CALCIVIS | Next Phase IIb clinical package for Edinburgh Molecular Imaging | At least one adjacent synthetic comparator that could strengthen the diagnostic pipeline
Quality, milestone, need, frontier, and hybrid outputs are deterministic calculations from the DEAP formulas supplied with the demo.
Scenario allocations are capped at each project's optimal budget assumption, and any remainder is redistributed across uncapped screening-pass projects.
Final committee choice remains a human judgement rather than an automated platform decision.
Project Decision Digests
Committee-facing summaries that keep sourced facts and model assumptions visibly distinct.
CALCIVIS Imaging System
Strong Pass · Fundable To Minimum Viable Level
Why It Passed
The project clears the round’s baseline screening checks for mandate, team, completeness, budget plausibility, milestone definition, and compliance.
Why It Scored Here
CALCIVIS Imaging System combines a 9/10 strategic-fit score with a 7/10 frontier score and a 4/10 risk penalty.
Why This Allocation
Allocation recommendations are generated from the DEAP formulas, then capped at the optimal budget assumption before redistribution.
Unknowns
Public sources do not expose every budget or rubric field, so round budgets and scores should be treated as committee assumptions.
Edinburgh Molecular Imaging cancer detection agents
Strong Pass · Fundable To Minimum Viable Level
Why It Passed
The project clears the round’s baseline screening checks for mandate, team, completeness, budget plausibility, milestone definition, and compliance.
Why It Scored Here
Edinburgh Molecular Imaging cancer detection agents combines a 8/10 strategic-fit score with a 9/10 frontier score and a 7/10 risk penalty.
Why This Allocation
Allocation recommendations are generated from the DEAP formulas, then capped at the optimal budget assumption before redistribution.
Unknowns
Public sources do not expose every budget or rubric field, so round budgets and scores should be treated as committee assumptions.
NeuroLens
Strong Pass · Fundable To Minimum Viable Level
Why It Passed
The project clears the round’s baseline screening checks for mandate, team, completeness, budget plausibility, milestone definition, and compliance.
Why It Scored Here
NeuroLens combines a 9/10 strategic-fit score with a 8/10 frontier score and a 5/10 risk penalty.
Why This Allocation
Allocation recommendations are generated from the DEAP formulas, then capped at the optimal budget assumption before redistribution.
Unknowns
Synthetic comparators are useful for testing allocation logic, but they do not carry external validation.
SynthBioForge
Strong Pass · Fundable To Minimum Viable Level
Why It Passed
The project clears the round’s baseline screening checks for mandate, team, completeness, budget plausibility, milestone definition, and compliance.
Why It Scored Here
SynthBioForge combines a 9/10 strategic-fit score with a 10/10 frontier score and a 8/10 risk penalty.
Why This Allocation
Allocation recommendations are generated from the DEAP formulas, then capped at the optimal budget assumption before redistribution.
Unknowns
Synthetic comparators are useful for testing allocation logic, but they do not carry external validation.
Optional AI Committee Memo
Use the browser-stored OpenAI key to turn the current deterministic brief and scenario outputs into a working committee narrative.
Browser AI Setup
- Stored key
- Not configured
- Enabled
- No
- Model
- gpt-5.4
No browser-side OpenAI key is stored yet.
Operating Boundary
The deterministic brief remains the canonical record. This AI path is for working narrative only and does not modify scenario outputs or audit snapshots.
Add a browser-side OpenAI key below or open Governance & AI to enable memo drafting.
Governance & AIGenerated Draft
Appendix Tables
Scenario summary rows for use in committee packs and PDF printouts.
| Scenario | Strategy | Milestone Score | Milestone Band | Need Score | Confidence | Funded Projects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equal Allocation Baseline | Equal Distribution | 7.7 | 6.5-8.9 | 19,380.0 | High | 4 |
| Need-Based Allocation | Need Adjusted | 7.8 | 6.6-9.1 | 21,241.8 | High | 4 |
| Frontier Allocation | Frontier First | 7.7 | 6.5-9.0 | 19,404.6 | High | 4 |
| Hybrid Committee View | Hybrid Allocation | 7.8 | 6.5-9.0 | 20,301.5 | High | 4 |